中国2008年消化道常见恶性肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimation and prediction for incidence, mortality and prevalence of common gastrointestinal tract cancers in China,2008

目的估计中国2008年消化道常见恶性肿瘤（食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌）发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测20年后其发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查（2004--2005年）的结果，估计中国2008年食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测2010--2030年的发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中国食管癌、胃癌与结直肠癌新发病例数分别为25．9万、46．4万和22．1万，合计占所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的三分之一；世界人口标化发病率分别为16．7／10万、29．9／10万和14．2／10万，分别排在所有恶性肿瘤的第5位、第2位和第6位；标化死亡率分别为13．4／10万、22．3／10万和6．9／10万，分别排在所有恶性肿瘤的第4位、第3位和第5位；2008年中国食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌5年患病数分别为25．7万、68．1万和50．9万，分别排在所有恶性肿瘤的第7位、第1位和第3位。据预测，中国食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌发病数与死亡数将逐年增加，至2030年发病例数将分别达到48．5万、86．0万和40．0万，死亡例数将分别达到41．3万、67．9万和21．2万。结论食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌是目前中国人群的主要消化道癌症，在未来20年其疾病负担将逐年增加，应当引起足够重视。

Objective To estimate the incidence, mortality and prevalence of most common gastrointestinal tract cancers （esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers） in China in 2008 and to predict the related incidence and mortality in the next 20 years. Methods Data from 36 Chinese cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China （2004-2005） were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of these cancers in the next 20 years. Results In 2008, the incident cases of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers were estimated to be 259 235,464 439 and 221 313, respectively, which totally accounted for one third of all the incident cancer cases. Age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers were estimated as 16.7/100 000, 29.9/100 000 and 14.2/100 000, respectively, while the mortality rates were 13.4/100 000,22.3/100 000 and 6.9/100 000, respectively. The number of 5-year prevalent cases were estimated as 257 352 for esophageal cancer,680 824 for gastric cancer and 509 140 for colorectal cancer, which correspondingly ranked the seventh, first and third among all the number of cancers, respectively. Till 2030, incident cases of these cancers would reach 484 923, 860 022 and 400 086, while deaths reach 412 916,678 670 and 211 714, respectively. Conclusion Esophageal, gastric and colorectal cancers had been the main digestive tract cancers in China, that causing serious health burden. As dramatic increasing burden was predicted in the next two decades for these three cancers ,more attention needs to be paid accordingly.