中国2008年前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence in China, 2008

目的估计2008年中国前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测未来20年其发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查（2004--2005年）的结果，估计2008年中国前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中国前列腺癌新发病例33802例，世界人口标化发病率为4．3／10万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的2．1％，居第8位；同期死亡14297例，世界人口标化死亡率为1．8／10万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的1．2％，居第11位。2008年中国15岁以上成年人前列腺癌5年患病例数为75535例，5年患病率为13．8／10万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤5年患病例数的3．5％，居第7位。前列腺癌发病率和死亡率在60岁之前均维持在较低水平，60岁以后迅速上升。未来20年，中国前列腺癌的发病数和死亡数均将呈现上升趋势。结论在未来20年中国前列腺癌发病和死亡情况将越来越严重，应在高危人群中开展早期筛查。

Objective To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of prostate cancer in China, in 2008. Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China （2004-2005）was used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of prostate cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in the next 20 years. Results In 2008, the incidence of prostate cancer was 33 802 （2.1%）, with the incidence rate as 4.3/100 000, which ranked the eighth among all the male cancers. Mortality of prostate cancer in China was 14 297 （1.2%） with the mortality rate of 1.8/100 000, which ranked eleventh among all the male cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of prostate cancer in China was 75 535 （3.5%） with the proportion of 13.8/100 000, ranking the seventh among all the male cancers. The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in men before the age of 60 maintained at a low level, but rose rapidly after the age of 60. Data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. Conclusion Both incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would keep increasing in the future. Prevention and control programs for prostate cancer should be strengthened.