中国2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in China, 2008

目的估计2008年中国脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测未来20年其发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查的结果，估计2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中国脑和神经系统肿瘤新发病例数为66454例，占所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的2．4％，年龄别标准化发病率为4．4／10万，居所有恶性肿瘤第10位。2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤死亡病例数为45573例，占所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的2．3％，年龄别标准化死亡率为3．0／10万，居所有恶性肿瘤第7位。2008年中国15岁以上成年人脑和神经系统肿瘤5年患病人数为91449例，占所有恶性肿瘤5年患病数的2．0％，5年患病率为8．6／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤的第12位。所有年龄段男性和女性的脑和神经系统肿瘤发病率均相差不大，在40岁以前发病率增长较为迅速，在40岁以后发病率的上升趋势趋于平缓。在未来20年内，男女性的脑和神经系统肿瘤发病例数、死亡例数均呈现持续上升趋势。结论中国脑和神经系统肿瘤负担呈逐渐上升趋势。

Objective To estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in China, 2008. Methods Data from 36 cancer registries in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in 2008, using the mathematical models. Prediction on the incidence, and mortality of brain and neurologic tumors in the next 20 years was also carried out. Results In 2008, the incidence of brain and neurologic tumors in China was 66 454 （2.4%） and the incidence rate of age-standardized was 4.4/100 000, ranking tenth among all the cancers. The mortality of brain and neurologic tumors in China was 45 573 （2.3%） ,with mortality rate as 3.0/100 000,which ranked seventh among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in China was 91 449（2.0% ） and the proportion was 8.6/100 000, which ranked twelfth among all the cancers. Incidence rates of brain and neurologic turmors in all the age groups were similar in both sexes, but the rate of incidence increased faster before 40 years old and slowed down thereafter. In the next 20 years, data from the prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of brain and neurologic tumors in China would gradually increase. Conclusion The burden of brain and neurologic tumors was increasing continuously.