上海市入境旅游本底趋势线的建立及其应用

Foundation and application of the background trend line of inbound tourism of Shanghai

依据 1 978 - 1 997年上海市入境旅游的统计数据 ,建立了上海市客流总量、外国人 (包括华侨 )、港澳台胞及旅游外汇收入 4条本底趋势线 ;并利用本底趋势线自然延伸的预测功能 ,对未来 4年上海市入境旅游业的发展趋势进行了预测 .结果表明 :未来 4年 ,外国人市场将处于一个低谷期 ,港澳台市场仍快速增长 ,入境客流总量基本保持平稳增长 ,入境旅游收入将处于持续增长 .同时还给出了旅游本底趋势线的统一形式 .

Based on the statistics data of inbound tourism of Shanghai from 1978～1997, this paper uses the inner insertion method to eliminate the major interference in tourism. Four background trend lines are founded by optimization simulated method on the basis of the edited data. They are: a. of total inbound tourists to Shanghai; b. of foreign and overseas Chinese to Shanghai; c. of tourists from Hongkong , Macao and Taiwan; d. of inbound tourism income of Shanghai. These four background trend lines have the function to forecast the future and indicate the rise and fall of tourism just as tourism barometer. It is found that the number of foreign and overseas Chinese tourists grows little in the years from 1998 to 2001, while tourists from Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan increase rapidly. The inbound tourism income also tends to grow quickly in the next 4 years. The innovation put forward in this paper is the general format of tourism background line.