未来十年中国煤炭碳排放量预测

Prediction of China's Carbon Emissions from Coal in Next Decade

应对全球气候变化,低碳经济是实现经济社会可持续发展的一种模式。为了对低碳经济进行深入研究,把握中国低碳经济研究文献现状是很有必要的,但运用文献计量学的方法对低碳经济进行定量方面的研究也是相当的必要。本文在对近十年中国煤炭碳排放量计算的基础上,运用移动平均法、滑动平滑法和回归分析法三种方法对未来十年中国煤炭碳排放量进行预测。预测结果表明:与近十年中国煤炭碳排放量相比,未来十年中国煤炭碳排放年均增长率虽有降低,但碳排放增长总量却呈上升的趋势。

Low - carbon economy is a model to achieve sustainable economic and social development in respond to the change of global climate. In order to promote the research development of low - carbon economy, it is necessary to review domestic literatures on low - carbon economy with bibliometric methods. This paper is based on China＇s coal related carbon emission in the past decade. Three methods of moving average, moving smoothing and regression analyses are applied in the carbon emission prediction. The result shows that, although the average growth rate of carbon emissions of coal in the next decade is lower compared with the past dec ade, the total growth of carbon emissions is on the rise.