基于电网状态和结构的连锁故障预测

Cascading failures forecasting based on running state and structure

电网连锁故障可能导致大规模停电并造成严重后果,在故障初期对后续故障进行预测有助于对大停电事故的预防。在分析了典型连锁故障的发展过程的基础上,建立了完整的支路静态能量函数的模型,构建了映射潮流变化的能量指标。结合反映电网结构脆弱性的电气介数,计及前后故障之间的累积效应,提出了反映电网故障后状态变化和结构变化的综合性裕度指标预测连锁故障。仿真结果能够搜索出较严重的连锁故障模式集,验证了该方法的合理性、有效性。

Power grid cascading failures may cause large scale blackout and lead to serious consequences. The forecasting of the follow-up failures in the initial stage of the failure is very helpful. On the basis of analysing developing process of the typical cascading failures, branch static energy function model is constructed comprehensively, and an energy index is built to map the change of flow. Meanwhile, combining with the electric betweenness that reflects the network structure vulnerability, considering the cumulative influence of previous failure on the following-up failure, a comprehensive margin index reflecting the change of state and structure after the grid failure is proposed to forecast the following-up cascading failures. The simulation results can search out a set of serious cascading failures, which shows the feasibility and validity of the method.