外贸减速背景下我国政策工具调节效力分析——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

China′s Policy Effectiveness on Adjusting the Foreign Trade Imbalance:A Positive Analysis based on a SVAR Model

本文运用结构向量自回归SVAR模型,对2003～2011年间我国各项政策工具在调节贸易收支方面的综合效力展开实证分析,并结合理论文献充分阐述各项政策发挥效力的传导机制,力图为中国当前政策搭配决策提供科学的理论与实证依据。本文主要结论是,在调节贸易收支失衡方面,我国货币政策比财政政策更加有效。脉冲响应函数显示,扩张性货币政策能够有效缩小贸易顺差,而且货币政策冲击在10个月后达到最大效力,2年后达到最大累积效力。财政支出扩张对贸易顺差有"先抑制再推动"的作用,但政策效力十分有限。人民币名义汇率的正向冲击能够对贸易收支造成显著的"倒J曲线效应"。与传统观点不同,国内要素价格上调在1年半左右的时间窗口不会抑制反而会扩大贸易盈余。上述实证结论支持在外贸减速背景下继续推进包括工资在内的生产要素价格改革,同时建议货币政策制定时应充分考虑对贸易收支的显著影响。

This paper makes a Structural Vector Autoregression econometric model(SVAR) to analyze China′s policy effectiveness on adjusting the trade balance through data from 2003 to 2011.Moreover,it articulates fully transmission mechanism of policies according to classical theoretical literatures.The paper takes some attempt to provide China′s policy decision-making with a scientific basis of empirical conclusions.The results show that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy to adjust trade imbalance in China.The impulse response function shows that expansionary monetary policy could effectively reduce the trade surplus,of which cumulative response reaches the maximum value after a standard deviation impulse from monetary policy in two years.From the impulse response,the expansionary fiscal policy could make trade surplus first shrink then expand,but the effect of policy is very weak.A positive impulse from the RMB nominal exchange rate could make a significant 'inverted J-curve' effect on the trade balance.Different from the traditional viewpoints,the price increase of domestic production factors could expand the trade surplus further within the time window of about one and a half years.This conclusion supports the reform of the domestic production factors system,including wages,and the paper recommends that China′s monetary policy should be formulated with fully consideration of its significant impact on the trade balance.