FDI流入对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响——一个动态面板数据分析

The Impact of FDI on China′s Technical Export Structure:A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

本文在理论考量的基础上,依据2002～2008年间中国不同技术类型的出口品数据,通过动态面板数据模型,针对中国FDI实际流入总量及分国别FDI流入量对中国出口品技术结构变化的影响进行了实证分析,并根据实证结果对流入中国的FDI的主要类型进行了判断。经分析发现,在样本期间,FDI能够有效地促进中国出口品技术结构的多样化,但对出口品技术结构的优化作用并不理想。其中,来自亚洲四小龙、中国澳门和日本的FDI对出口品技术结构存在较大影响,这在一定程度上反映了现有东亚分工体系对中国的影响;可以判断,当前流入中国的FDI主要是垂直型和出口平台型。基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Following the theoretical analyses,the paper constructs a dynamic panel data model by using the data from 2002 to 2008 to identify whether the gross amount of FDI and the FDI from different countries have positive effects on the upgrading of the technical structure of China′s exports or not.It also tries to judge the main types of FDI inflows into China.It finds that the gross amount of FDI can promote the diversity of export structure but has few effects on the upgrading of export structure.The FDI from Japan,Macao and NIEs has significant effects on China′s export structure,which reflects the influence of the East Asian production networks on China.It can be infered that the main types of FDI inflows into China are vertical FDI and export-platform FDI,based on this findings,the paper gives some policy suggestions.