决策与判断中的过度自信研究述评

Review on Overconfidence in Process of Judgment and Decision Making

过度自信是人们高估自己决策和判断正确性的一种现象,对过度自信的研究可以为企业和个体的安全管理、投资决策等提供理论依据和实践指导。在综述以往研究的基础上,文章将当前有关过度自信的研究区分为个体、群体和社会文化三种研究取向,并对过度自信的理论和模型进行了述评。未来研究应提高过度自信研究的生态效度,整合个体、群体和社会文化三种研究取向,把动机偏差、信息偏差和认知偏差结合起来,进行多维、多层结构建模。

Overconfidence is a phenomenon that people overestimate the correction of their judgment and decision making.The research on overconfidence can provide theoretical and practical guidance for people’s and enterprise’s safety management and investigation decision making et al.On the basis of review on the former overconfidence research,this research differentiated the overconfidence research into three research orientations： individual orientation,group orientation,and social culture orientation,and then commented on the theories and models of overconfidence.The future research should enhance the ecological validity,and integrate individual,group,and social culture research orientation,at the same time,combine the motive bias,information bias,and cognition bias,so as to conduct multidimensional and hierarchical construct modeling.