鲜活农产品拍卖价格与供货量波动的相互影响

Interaction between the Fluctuating Prices and Supplies of Fresh Agricultural Products

选择昆明国际花卉拍卖中心所有产品一年内的日交易数据,采用ARCH LM检验、OLS回归等方法,从预期角度分析了我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场价格和供货量的波动特征以及二者的相互影响。实证结果表明,价格和供货量呈现大幅波动,同时价格预期和供货预期体现出很强的波动聚集性;并且,二者的波动具有必然的联系:供货预期对价格有负向影响,价格预期对供货量有正向影响。

According to the trading date of all products of KIFA,using ARCH LM test and OLS regression,the fluctuations in prices and supplies of fresh agricultural products and their interactions are analyzed from the perspective of expectation.Empirical results show that prices and supplies are significantly fluctuating,and price and supply expectations reflect strong volatility clustering.In addition,there are inevitable connections between them,supply expectations have negative impact on prices,and price expectations have positive impact on supplies.