基于乙醇含量的杨梅果实腐烂指数预测模型研究

Predictive Modeling of Decay Index of Chinese Bayberry Fruits Based on Ethanol Content

研究基于乙醇含量的杨梅果实腐烂指数预测模型,以期预测杨梅物流过程中果实腐烂状况。将杨梅果实贮藏于不同温度(0、5、10、15℃和20℃)下,测定其腐烂指数和乙醇含量变化。基于描述微生物生长的Gompertz方程和Arrhenius动力学方程建立杨梅果实腐烂指数变化动力学模型;根据果实腐烂指数和乙醇含量变化的关系,建立基于乙醇含量的果实腐烂指数模型。通过以上两模型建立杨梅果实腐烂指数的预测模型。杨梅果实腐烂指数变化动力学模型和基于乙醇含量的果实腐烂指数模型预测的相对误差分别为2.69%和0.74%,预测精度较高,以此为基础建立的基于果实乙醇含量的腐烂指数预测模型可以较好的预测在0～20℃贮藏杨梅果实的腐烂状况,为实现杨梅果实的无损检测提供理论支持。

In order to predict decay incidence of Chinese bayberry fruits, a prediction model for decay index based on ethanol content were developed. Freshly harvested Chinese bayberry fi＇uits were stored at different temperatures （0, 5, 10, 15 ℃ and 20 ℃）. The changes in decay index and ethanol content of bayberry fruits were determined during storage. A kinetic model for decay index with respect to storage time and temperature was developed based on Gompertz equation and Atfhenius equation. A model for decay index based on ethanol content was developed according to the linear relationship between decay index and ethanol content. According to the analysis of both models, a prediction model for decay index based on ethanol content was developed. The relative prediction errors for the kinetic model for decay index and the model for decay index based on ethanol content were 2.69% and 0.74%, respectively. The prediction accuracy was acceptable. Therefore, the decay index of Chinese bayberry fruits can be accurately predicted at storage temperatures from 0 to 20 ℃ by the developed prediction model based on ethanol content, which can provide theoretical supports for the non-destructive inspection of Chinese bayberry fruits.