日本对外贸易条件及其波动性检验

Terms of Japanese Foreign Trade and Its Relevant Volatility

本文研究了1960～2009年日本对外贸易条件的发展过程,并将其分为三个主要阶段,同时结合日本经济发展的大致轨迹分析了对外贸易条件变动的原因。并进一步探讨了食品、纺织、化学、金属等6类主要产品部门的贸易条件及其发展过程。通过对贸易条件方程式进行分解,将对外贸易条件波动分为绝对贸易条件效应和相对贸易条件效应,并利用方差分解的方法分析了日本对外贸易条件波动的原因。结合日本对外贸易条件变动的历程和我国的现实,提出了加强科技创新、提升产品附加值,促进产业结构优化和主导产业升级,建立完善对外贸易预警机制和稳定大宗商品供给和价格波动等建议。

This paper reviews the terms of Japanese foreign trade from 1960 to 2009, which is divided into three stages, then analyzes the determinants for the terms of foreign trade by connecting the economic development in Japan, further explores the terms of Japanese foreign trade and developing process of the six main product departments, such as foodstuff, textile materials, chemicals and metallic materials. By using mathematic methods, this paper divides the volatility into absolute terms of foreign trade effect and relative terms of foreign trade effect and analyzes their volatile reasons. Combining the process of the terms of Japanese foreign trade with the reality of China, this paper gives some advice, such as strengthening innovation of science and technology, enhancing product additional value, promoting the optimization of industrial structure and dominant industry upgrade, establishing and improving foreign trade early-warning mechanism and the stability of commodities＇ supply and price fluctuation.