亚洲货币单位与东亚货币合作的收敛性

Asian Monetary Unit and East Asian Monetary Cooperation's Convergence

本文使用修正的KSS非线性单位根检验方法,研究了以亚洲货币单位为计价单位的东盟及中、日、韩3国货币相对美元的收敛性问题。实证分析发现:韩元和菲律宾比索在10%显著水平上、泰铢在5%显著水平上是非线性过程收敛的;柬埔寨瑞尔、人民币、港元、日元、老挝基普、马来西亚林吉特、缅元和新加坡元均是非线性长期收敛的。总的说来,10+3国家具有创建共同汇率机制的可能。

This paper utilizes the modified KSS nonlinear unit root test methodology and studies the convergence of the currencies of ASEAN 10＋3 related to US dollar denominated in Asian monetary unit. The empirical results show that at 10% significant level,ROK won and Philippine peso, as well asThai baht, at 5% significant level, are in progress of the nonlinear convergence; Cambodia riel, Chinese RMB, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, Laos kip, Malaysia ringgit, Myanma kyat and Singapore dollar are all in the long-run nonlinear convergence. Generally speaking, it is possible to set up the commaon foreign exchange rate mechanism among ASEAN 10＋3.