全球金融危机后的“新常态”与中国宏观经济

On Post-Financial Tsunami "New Norm" and China's Macroeconomy

2008～2009年的全球金融危机有着深层的结构因素。始于上世纪80年代的经济全球化进程,不仅极大地提高了发展中国家的经济发展水平,也造就了很多重要的经济结构不平衡,直接和间接地导致了金融危机。经济结构失衡需要很长时间来纠正和调整,发达经济体可能会处于持续低迷状态。这一危机后时代的新常态也意味着新兴经济体必须进行结构调整,才能确保稳定、健康的经济增长。中国宏观经济政策必须着眼于在短期内稳定增长,在中长期内致力于结构调整,转变经济发展模式,实现从中等收入国家向发达国家的过渡。

The 2008- 2009 global financial crisis has deep root structural causes. Globalization starting fi＇om the early 1980s not only led to high economic growth in emerging and developing economies, but also resulted in many important structural imbalances, which are associated with the global financial crisis. It would take long to correct these structural imbalances; as a result, advanced economies could struggle for some time. The ＂new normal＂ in the post-crisis period implies that emerging economies must also transform their economies to ensure stable and robust economic growth. Macroeconomic policy in China should stabilize growth in the short term, and refm＇m and adjust China＇ s economic structure, and transform its developmenl strategy, to achieve the transition from middle-income country to high-income one in the medium to longer term.