1978—2009年我国卫生总费用筹资结构研究:基于Elman神经网络模型

Research on Financing Proportion of Total Health Expenditure of China Based on Elman Neural Network Model

政府、社会和个人卫生支出占卫生总费用的比重是反映卫生总费用筹资结构的主要指标。文章选取1978—2009年我国卫生总费用筹资结构的统计数据构建Elman神经网络预测模型,描述卫生总费用筹资结构的发展特点,并对其未来走势进行预测,以期为改善卫生筹资提供建议。

The proportions of government, social and personal health expenditure are the main indicators of reflecting financing proportion of total expenditure on health. We chose the statistics of financing proportion of total expenditure on health of China from 1978 to 2009, described the development features and predicted its future trends by using Elman neural network model, hoping to provide some suggestions for improving health financing.