月内短期气候预测中若干问题的讨论

Discussions on Several Problems in Short-Term Climate Prediction within A Month

首先介绍了月平均环流在气候预测中的应用 ,在此基础上 ,重点讨论了影响月内短期气候预测的若干因素 ,对可预报性的时空依赖性、初始场的作用、集合预报以及后处理进行了分析 ,并对其未来的发展做了展望。

The applications of monthly averaged circulation in climate prediction are reviewed. Some important factors which could make great effects on the forecasting result are discussed,and the dependence of predictability on the time space scale,the function of initial data,the ensemble forecast and the post procedure etc.areanalyzed.Finally,apreviewon futuredevelopmentinshort termclimatepredictionispresented.