亚运会对广州市GDP影响力评估的数学模型的研究

An Mathematical Model for Evaluation of Asian Games' Impact on Guangzhou GDP

本文主要讨论了亚运会给广州市经济生活带来的影响及后亚运会效应问题。首先列出了可能影响广州市社会产生影响的几个方面,并运用主成分分析法得出亚运会对广州市影响最大的方面为广州市的GDP,然后通过回归分析方法,建立了有亚运会与无亚运会情况下GDP的增长模型,给出了亚运会对GDP影响的评价指标体系,计算得到了亚运会对GDP的影响率和贡献率。最后,本文建立了灰色理论模型,预测出未来四年内受后亚运影响下GDP的增长情况,所得出2010、2011年广州市GDP与实际情况十分吻合。

In this paper,we discusses the influence on economic life of Guangzhou city and the effects after the Asian Games,which was brought by Guangzhou Asian Games.Firstly,we list several aspects which may affect the economic life of Guangzhou City.We get the biggest factor which was the GDP of Guangzhou city by using principal component analysis method,and then we construct the GDP growth model in the case of have Asian Games and no Asian Games by regression analysis.Secondly,we establish evaluation system of GDP,According to this system;we get influence rate of GDP and contribution rate of GDP.Finally,we set up Grey Forecasting Model of GM（1,1）,and predict the next four years GDP after the Asian Games.