基于可持续发展理论的人口承载力研究——以阜阳市为例

Study on population carrying capacity based on the theory of sustainable development in Fuyang City

随着阜阳市人口的不断增加,土地资源和水资源能否满足未来人口的需要日益引起普遍关注。从土地资源和水资源两方面着手,在分析两者利用现状的基础上,建立土地资源承载力模型和水资源承载力模型,根据2006年～2011年安徽省统计年鉴,计算阜阳市2005年至2010年的人口承载力,分析是否满足可持续发展的要求。结果表明近6年的人口承载力都低于每年的人口数,难以达到可持续发展的要求。最后提出相应的建议和措施,为阜阳市今后发展提供参考。

With the increasing population of Fuyang,land resources and water resources can not meet the future needs of the population.The problem has caused widespread attention.This paper from the two aspects of land resources and water resources analysing the current situation of the two aspects,according to ＂2006~2011＂ Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province＂,builds land resources carrying capacity model and model of water resources carrying capacity in Fuyang city from 2005 to2010,calculating population carrying capacity,and according to the results of this study analyzing whether they can meet the requirements of sustainable development.The results show that nearly six years population carrying capacity is lower than the corresponding annual population,it is difficult to meet the needs of the sustainable development.Finally the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and measures for the future development of Fuyang City reference.