苏州地区手足口病与气候因素的相关性分析

Association between activity of hand, foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in Suzhou

目的探讨苏州地区手足口病的发病情况与气候因素的关系。方法登记2008年1月至2011年12月在苏州大学儿童医院发热门诊初诊为手足口病患儿17653例，收集同期苏州地区的气象资料，包括月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月总雨量、月日照总和及月平均风速。计数资料比较采用卡方检验或Fisher确切概率法，正态分布数据采用Pearson相关分析，非正态分布数据采用Spearman非参数检验。结果手足口病全年均可发病，但夏季高发，其次是春季，冬季明显减少。月平均气温（r=0．716，P〈0．01）、月平均风速（r=0．630，P〈O．01）、月总雨量（r=0．477，P〈0．01）及月日照总和（r=0．311，P％0．05）与手足口病发病数呈正相关，而与月平均相对湿度无相关性（r=0．276，P〉O．05）。多元逐步回归分析显示，月平均气温和月总雨量选人回归方程，且月平均气温对手足口病的影响高于月总雨量（t=4．687，P〈0．01；t=2．258，P％0．05）。结论苏州地区手足口病的发病具有明显的季节性，温度和总雨量是其发病的重要原因。

Objective To study the association between activity of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） and the meteorological factors in Suzhou. Methods A total of 17 653 children diagnosed with HFMD in Childrenls Hospital Affiliated to Suzhou University during 2008 to 2011 were enrolled. The meteorological factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, rainfall amount, sum of sunshine and mean wind velocity during Jan 2008 to Dec 2011 were collected monthly. Numeration data were analyzed using chi square or Fisher exact test. Normal distribution data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and non-normal distribution data were analyzed using Spearman rank correlation. Results HFMD could be found all over the year and had obvious seasonality which peaked in Summer, followed by Spring and Autumn and HFMD decreased markedly in Winter. The activity of HFMD was positive correlated with mean temperature（r= 0. 716, P〈0. 01）, wind velocity （r= 0.630, P〈0. O1）, rainfall（r=0.477, P〈0. O1） and sum of sunshine（r=0.311, P〈0.05）. No statistical significance was observed between relative humidity and HFMD（r= 0. 276, P〈 0. 05）. Multivariate stepwise regression analysis showed that only mean temperature and rainfall were associated with HFMD and mean temperature had stronger influence on HFMD than rainfall （t = 4.687, P〈0. 01; t=2. 258, P〈0. 05）. Conclusions HFMD has obvious seasonality. Mean temperature and rainfall are the main factors affecting this seasonality.