城市土地利用变化模型的构建与模拟——以福州市城区为例

Construction and simulation of land change modeler(LCM)——taking Fuzhou City as an example

在对2000年、2005年和2010年三期福州城区土地利用影像解译图及其影响因素研究分析的基础上,利用Idrisi和ArcGIS软件构建土地利用变化模型(LCM);并利用该模型预测2010年和2015年福州城区土地利用变化情况.预测结果的Kappa系数达到0.8657,表明预测精度与可信度较高.预测结果表明2015年福州城区建设用地沿闽江向东南方向扩展;建设用地、园地和道路的面积持续增大,水田、林地和未利用地面积不断减小,水域面积变化不大.

By studying and analyzing the three periods of land use image interpretation maps in 2000,2005 and 2010 and their influence factors,the land change modeler（LCM） was constructed by use of Idrisi and ArcGIS,and the land use changes of Fuzhou City in 2010 and 2015 were simulated and predicted using above model.The Kappa coefficient of the prediction was 0.8657,which showed the prediction result of the model was accurate and reliable.The prediction result showed in 2015 the construction land of Fuzhou City expended southeastward along Minjiang River;the areas of construction land,garden and road increased continuously,those of paddy field,forest land and unused land decreased ceaselessly,the water area changed little in Fuzhou City.