朱溪水库诱发地震可能性分析

The Probability Analysis of Induced Earthquakes in Zhuxi Reservoir

台州市朱溪水库于2011年开始筹备建设,坝高73.5m,总库容1.257亿m3,属于大型水库。水库建成蓄水后是否会诱发地震,一旦诱发地震,可达的最大震级有多大,这一焦点问题备受各方关注。本文通过对库区区域构造背景、主要断层活动、破坏性地震的影响及地震地质条件,结合水库库区的具体情况,采用构造类比分析法和概率预测法,对朱溪水库诱发地震的可能性进行了分析,最终给出了相对科学的预测结论,为将来应对可能出现的水库诱发地震问题提供了科学依据。

Zhuxi reservoir in Taizhou city was put into preparation for the construction in 2011. As a large-scale reservoir, the storage capacity of Zhuxi is 1.257 billion cubic meters with a dam height of 73.5 meters. Much attention has been paid to some potential problems thereafter, such as the probability of induced earthquakes and the possible maximal magnitude. Based on the regional tectonic background, main faults activity, the potential earthquake hazard and the seismo-geological conditions, we discuss the probability of the induced earthquake in Zhuxi Reservoir by using analogy analysis method of structures and the probabilistic prediction method. Our results will provide a scientific base for reservoir induced earthquake study in future after the reservoir is built up.