上海增值税改革对现代服务业的影响测算及效应评估

The Impact Calculation and Effect Evaluation of Modern Service Industry by V.A.T.Reform in Shanghai

增值税改革将通过税负变动和税收弹性变动对现代服务业的发展带来深刻影响。本文以上海增值税改革为背景,基于上海市2007年投入产出表测算增值税改革给上海现代服务业带来的税负变动和税收弹性变动,并据此对试点行业的短期和长期效应进行评估。研究发现:此次增值税改革试点可以减轻除软件业、文化艺术业和租赁业以外的试点现代服务业行业税负,而且减幅较大。改革的即时效应会急剧降低除软件业、文化艺术业和租赁业以外试点现代服务业行业的税收弹性。此次增值税改革将使当年上海市税收收入减少约146亿,但是随着行业产值的增加和增值税抵扣链条的不断完整,税收收入将稳定增长。就长期而言,增值税改革给上海现代服务业发展带来了经济调控和产业分工等系列效应。结合测算和评估,论文最后给出了政策建议。

V. A. T reform will have great impact on modem service industry by tax bearing and tax elasticity. Regard- ing V. A. T reform in Shanghai as background, the thesis calculates the influence of V. A. T reform in Shanghai by input - output table. The study finds out that the pilot service industry will drastically reduce the tax bearing of all modem service industries except the software industry, culture ＆ arts industry and leasing industry. The immediate effect of reform will reduce the elasticity of tax drastically except the software industry, culture ＆ arts industry and leasing industry. The V. A. T reform pilot in Shanghai will decrease the tax income around 14.6 billion Yuan. But.the tax income will increase steadily after the increase of the industry output and the completion of discount chain. In the long term, the V. A. T reform pilot in Shanghai will bring series effects of coordination and peeling. According to the calculation and evaluation, the thesis gives policy suggestions.