基于突变理论的泉州市水资源安全预警

Early Warning of Water Resources Security in Quanzhou Based on Catastrophe Theory

从水资源安全预警的内涵和原则出发,结合水资源复合系统的分析,以警情指标为对象,警源指标为依据,警兆指标为主体构建水资源安全预警指标体系,并划定各指标的警界。基于突变理论的突变级数法,首先对评价指标进行多层次分解,利用突变理论同模糊数学相结合产生突变模糊隶属函数,由归一公式进行综合量化运算,求出总的隶属函数来完成评价。以泉州市为例建立水资源安全预警指标及警界,确定各警度之间的阈值。搜集2000年-2008年的指标数据,运用BP神经网络预测2009年-2013年的预警指标值,根据突变级数法计算得到2000年-2013年的突变级数值,与预警阈值比较来预测警度,从时间尺度上掌握泉州市水资源安全状况的变化趋势。

According to the concept and principle of the early warning of water resources security and the analysis of water resources complex system,an early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed based on the indexes of warning situation,source of warning,and warning sign,and the warning limit of each index was designated.The evaluation index was performed multi-level decomposition using the catastrophe progression method,and the catastrophe fuzzy subordinate function was obtained using the combination of the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics.Then,the normalization formula was used to conduct the comprehensive quantification and to obtain the overall subordinate function to complete the evaluation.The early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed in Quanzhou,and the warning limits for each indicator were designated and the threshold values between each of the warning degrees were determined.The early warning indicator values were collected from 2000 to 2008.The BP neural network method was used to forecast the early warning indicator values from 2009 to 2013,and the catastrophe progress method was used to determine the catastrophe progress values of early warning indicators from 2000 to 2013.The catastrophe progress values were compared with the threshold values of early warning indicators to predict the warning degree,and the variation trend of water resources security situation in Quanzhou was determined from the time scale.