引汉济渭工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇分析

Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability of Rich-poor Precipitation between Water Source Area and Water Receiving Area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project

对于引汉济渭工程来说,其水源区和受水区的丰枯遭遇对工程调度方案的制定有重要影响。利用Copula函数法和统计法对水源区与受水区的降水丰枯遭遇进行统计,为制定调度方案提供参考依据。统计结果的对比分析显示,Copula函数法和统计方法统计结果基本一致,水源区和受水区丰枯组合中对调水有利的概率均大于70%,但在样本序列较短时统计法存在局限性,Copula函数法可以弥补统计方法的不足。计算结果还表明,工程可以保证调水效益的正常发挥。

In the view of the effects of encountering of rich-poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area on the establishment of regulation scheme,the Copula function theory and statistical method were applied to calculate the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area,which can provide reference for the regulation scheme.The synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability obtained from the Copula function theory was similar to that determined by the statistical method,which showed that the advantage probabilities of the combination of rich and poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area to water transfer were all higher than 70% for both methods.However,the statistical method had limitations for the short sample sequences,whereas the copula function theory can cover the deficiency of the statistical method.The results showed that the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project can ensure the efficiency of water transfer.