西藏林芝地区水资源承载力研究

Research of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Linzhi of Tibet

鉴于西藏十分脆弱的生态、环境、资源现状,文中结合西藏自治区林芝地区的实际情况,构建了能够反映区域生态、经济、环境、资源各个系统中各要素之间的相互依赖和共同发展关系的林芝地区水资源承载力研究的系统动力学数学模型,并运用了Vensim PLE软件开展了该模型对林芝地区的水资源承载力以及该地区的水资源合理开发与利用模式的系统动力学模拟。同时,参照我国经济发展水平设计了另外两种经济发展模式,对比三种方案的模拟结果可以发现:按照现有经济规划模式,在模拟期内不会出现水资源短缺问题;但现阶段经济发展模式水资源消耗明显较大,水资源消耗量高于全国水资源利用的平均水平,故该经济模式属于明显的粗放型不可持续的发展模式,亟待改进或重新开展规划。

In terms of the fragile ecology,environment,and resources conditions in Tibet,a system dynamics model on the water resources carrying capacity in Linzhi of Tibet was developed based on the actual conditions in Linzhi.The model can reflect the mutual dependence and collaborative development of various factors in the four systems including the ecological system,economic system,environmental system,and resources system.The Vensim PLE software was used in the model to simulate the water resources carrying capacity and the system dynamics of the reasonable development and utilization mode of water resources in Linzhi.Moreover,two other economic development modes were designed based on the level of economic development in China,and the model results from the three scenarios were compared.The results showed that the water resources shortage problem will not occur in the simulation period according to the existing economic planning model.However,the water resources consumption in Linzhi was higher than the average water resources utilization in China based on the current economic development mode,which indicated that the current economic development mode in Linzhi is inefficient and unsustainable and a new economic development mode or improvement on the current economic development mode is needed.