摘要
In order to consider the time-dependent characteristic of risk factors of hydropower project,the method of stochastic process simulating structure resistance and load effect is adopted.On the basis of analyzing the structure characteristics and mode of operation,the operation safety risk rate assessment model of hydropower project is established on the comprehensive application of the improved analytic hierarchy process,the time-dependent reliability theory and the risk rate threshold.A scheme to demonstrate the time-dependent risk rate assessment method for an example of the earth-rock dam is particularly implemented by the proposed approach.The example shows that operation safety risk rate is closely related to both the service period and design standard;considering the effect of time-dependent,the risk rate increases with time and the intersection of them reflects the technical service life of structures.It could provide scientific basis for the operation safety and risk decision of the hydropower project by predicting the trend of risk rate via this model.
In order to consider the time-dependent characteristic of risk factors of hydropower project, the method of stochastic process simulating structure resistance and load effect is adopted. On the basis of analyzing the structure characteristics and mode of operation, the operation safety risk rate assessment model of hydropower project is established on the comprehensive application of the improved analytic hierarchy process, the time-dependent reliability theory and the risk rate threshold. A scheme to demonstrate the time-dependent risk rate assessment method for an example of the earth-rock dam is particularly implemented by the proposed approach. The example shows that operation safety risk rate is closely related to both the service period and design standard ; considering the effect of time-dependent, the risk rate increases with time and the intersection of them reflects the technical service life of structures. It could provide scientific basis for the operation safety and risk decision of the hydropower project by predicting the trend of risk rate via this model.
基金
Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51021004)
关键词
操作安全
水电项目
时间依赖
风险分析方法
时间变化
水电工程
技术服务
风险率
operation safety of hydropower project
risk analysis
risk rate assessment
time-dependent reliability
improved analytic hierarchy process
