贵州烟草蚜传病毒病(PVY、CMV)发生规律及其预测模型的初步研究

Preliminary study on occurrence regularity and prediction model of tobacco virus diseases(PVY and CMV)transmitted by aphids in Guizhou Province

通过2002-2011年对贵州代表性烟区烟草蚜传病毒病(PVY、CMV)的系统调查与普查,分析了烟草蚜传病毒病发生程度与有翅蚜迁飞量及主要气象因子间的关系,初步了解了该病害的发生流行规律。并以有翅蚜迁飞量和关键气象指标为预报因子,应用DPS统计软件进行逐步回归分析,初步建立了烟草蚜传病毒病发生程度短期预测模型Y=44.168 7+1.106 9 X1-1.352 2 X4-0.403 9 X6-0.142 6 X11+0.023 5 X19-0.289 2 X20(其中,X1=移栽初期10d内日平均诱蚜量;X4=上年12月均温;X6=上年12月平均相对湿度;X11=2月降水量;X19=5月降水量;X20=5月雨日数),经显著性检验和预报验证,回归方程达极显著水平,回测准确率平均达89.04%,实报验证误差率为11.57%～13.88%,说明入选预报因子比较切合贵州实际,预测模型具有较大的实用价值。

The systematic monitoring and general survey of tobacco virus diseases（PVY and CMV）transmitted by aphids was carried out in tobacco production areas in Guizhou during 2002-2011.The effects of migration amount of alate aphids and main meteorological factors on the damage degree of tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids were analyzed.The occurrence and epidemic regularity of tobacco virus diseases transmitted by aphids were also preliminarily studied.With the migration amount of alate aphids and key meteorological factors as forecasting elements,the short-term prediction models were established with stepwise regression analysis by DPS statistics software.It was Y=44.168 7＋1.106 9X1-1.352 2X4-0.403 9X6-0.142 6X11＋0.023 5X19-0.289 2X20（X1 = number of enticed aphids during the early stage of transplanting;X4=average temperature of December in the previous year;X6 = average relative humidity of December in the previous year;X11 = precipitation of February;X19=precipitation of May;X20 = number of raining days in May）.The significance test and the forecast confirmation showed that the regression equation reached extremely remarkable level,the rate of accuracy of reverse running reached 89.04% and the error rate of true report was 11.57%~13.88%.It was illustrated that selected predictor relatively suited the Guizhou reality and the forecast model had great practical value.