烟草配送中心多阶段物流系统分析及应用

Analysis and Application of Multi-stage Logistics System in Tobacco Distribution Center

烟草配送中心在设计及生产计划阶段都需要对各物流阶段和整体运作效率进行分析和预测,而现有的经验评估或模拟仿真的效率预估方法在实际应用中实现较困难。为此,通过研究烟草配送中心物流系统的多个周期活动,提出了连续马尔科夫链模型及其三阶近似分析模型,在明确配送中心各物流环节运作周期概率分布的前提下,可以较精确地对配送中心进行效率评估。以一个大型烟草物流中心为例,应用和验证了三阶段物流系统马尔科夫链近似模型,通过比较统计指标和分析指标,对近似模型的可靠性和精确性进行了评估,模型的绝对误差在5%左右。因此,该分析模型可以较精确地预测配送中心的作业效率。

The analysis and forecast of operational efficiency of overall logistics system and each logistics stage are necessary for a tobacco distribution center （Tobacco DC） not only when it is in designing but also in production planning, however, these tasks are not achievable by using conventional efficiency estimating methods, including empirical evaluation and analog simulation in practical application. Therefore, continuous Markov chain model and its three-stage approximate analysis model were developed by analyzing a number of periodic activities of the logistics system, which could estimate the efficiency of Tobacco DC more accurately on the premise of explicitly understanding the probability distribution of operational period at each logistics stage. Taking a large-scale tobacco DC as an example, approximate Markov chain model of a three-stage logistics system was applied and verified, and its reliability and accuracy were evaluated by comparing its analysis indexes with statistics data. It indicated that, the absolute error of the model was about 5%.