基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的初步研究

The preliminary research about the precursory signals of abrupt climate change based on critical slowing down phenomenon

近年来,临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力.基于临界慢化的理念,研究了气候突变的早期预警信号.针对20世纪70年代末80年代初的气候突变,对全国月平均温度资料和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数进行分析,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数.结果表明,气候发生突变前,全国月平均温度和PDO指数都存在明显的临界慢化现象,这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个早期信号.将临界慢化理论用于气候突变前兆信号的研究,对深入认识气候突变和捕捉气候突变前兆信号都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.

In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation （PDO） index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.