金融监管模式选择:从牵头模式向统一监管模式的过渡

On the Choice of Financial Regulation Pattern: from the Pulling-head Mode to Statistical Regulation Mode

结合74个国家的金融监管模式数据,运用有序多分类logit回归分析方法,构建以金融监管集中程度为因变量,6类影响因素为自变量的金融监管模式选择影响因素模型进行分析,结果表明:中央银行参与金融监管的程度、一国的经济规模以及政府制定、执行和完善政策的能力,对一国金融监管模式选择会产生显著影响;与我国的现实选择不同,自从我国2003年实行分业监管改革以来,随着我国社会经济金融体系的不断深化发展,对实施部分统一监管模式的需求概率值一直很高,统一监管模式的变革趋势日益明显。在我国现有的分业监管体制下,现阶段宜采取牵头式的机构监管和功能监管相结合的综合监管模式,待条件成熟时将监管模式由牵头模式过渡到统一监管模式。

By building the factor model about finance supervision and regulation mode with cause variable for centralize degree and independent variable for 6 kinds affecting factors based on 74 countries＂ data of order logit regression, the empirical result shows that, the degree of central bank ＂s involvement in financial supervision, national economic scale and the ability for the government to formulation, implement and improvement the policy has a remarkable effect on the choice of finan- cial regulation pattern. Differing from the practical choice in China, since the implement of separate regulatory reform in 2003, with the further development of social, economic and financial system in China, there is a remarkable trend of reform of unified regulatory pattern. Under the existent sys- tem of separate regulatory, we should take pulling-head consolidated supervision mode combining institution regulation and function regulation at present, and when the condition becomes mature, it can be transformed to unified regulatorv mode.