新乡市2004-2010年梅毒流行特征分析与灰色系统G(1，1)模型对流行趋势预测

Epidemiological analysis of syphilis prevalence in 2004-2010 in Xinxiang City and prediction of its trend with G(1,1) Grey Model

目的了解新乡市梅毒流行特征和发病趋势,为梅毒防治策略制订提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2004-2010年梅毒病例报告资料进行分析,并运用灰色系统G(1,1)模型对2011-2013年梅毒流行趋势进行预测。结果 2004-2010年全市累计报告梅毒病例2 996例,年发病率由2004年的1.26/10万持续上升至2010年的18.27/10万,年平均发展速度为146.52%。灰色系统G(1,1)模型预测2011-2013年梅毒发病率依次为27.03/10万、40.04/10万、59.31/10万,呈现快速增长趋势。结论新乡市梅毒防治形势不容乐观,应引起各级政府高度重视,加强宣传教育,全面实施健康教育、行为干预等综合防治措施,遏制梅毒疫情蔓延。

Objective To understand epidemic characteristics and prevalence trend of syphilis in Xinxiang City, and provide scientific evidence for the development of syphilis prevention strategy. Methods Reported syphilis data from 2004 to 2010 were analyzed with descriptive epidemiological methods, and the prevalence trend of syphilis from 2011 to 2013 was predicted with G（1,1）Grey model. Results Totally, 2 996 syphilis cases were reported from 2004 tO 2010 in Xinxiang and the syphilis incidence rose from 1.26 per 100 000 in 2004 to 18.27 per 100 000 in 2010, the average rising rate was 146.52% ; syphilis incidence from 2011 to 2013 was predicted with G（1,1） Grey model to be 27.03 per 100 000, 40.04 per 100 000 and 59.31 per 100 000 respectively, keeping an rapid rising trend. Conclusion The situation of syphilis prevention and control in Xinxiang City is not optimistic and great attention should be paid by the government at all levels. Comprehensive prevention including publicity, health education and behavioral intervention should be carried out to control the syphilis prevalence.