Fuzzy控制预报模型及其应用

Fuzzy Cybernetics Forecasting Model and Its Application

论述了 Fuzzy控制预报模型的建模方法 ,并探讨了该模型在麦长管蚜发生期预报中的应用 :我们将麦长管蚜发生期的预报过程拟成一个 Fuzzy控制系统 ,预报因子作为系统的输入 ,预报对象作为系统的输出 ,根据历年系统观测资料 ,建立了 Fuzzy控制预报模型 .对历史资料进行回代验证 ,其历史拟合率达 1 0 0 %.将 1 995年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报 ,预测结果与实际一致 .

We analyse the modeling method of fuzzy cybernetics forecasting model and discuss its application on occurrence period forecasting of the macrosiphum avenae (Fabricius). We model the occurrence period forecasting process as a fuzzy cybernetics system, the forecasting factors are considered as the input of the system and the forecasting objects as the output.Then, fuzzy cyberntics forecasting model is constructed according to the data of the occurrence period of the macrosiphum avenae over the years. The results of the returning forecasting from 1982 to 1994 and the forecasing for 1995 are satisfactory.