非均衡理论在长江三角洲实践之效果分析——转移—份额法的实例应用分析

THE EFFECT OF UNBALANCED THEORIES APPLIED IN THE YANGTSE DELTA

二战后 ,非均衡理论迅速发展 ,并被各国政府纷纷用之指导其区域规划 ,有的已取得一定成效。本文简要阐述国内外主要的非均衡理论 ,进而分析长江三角洲的经济特点和经济扩散的空间过程 ,并利用转移—份额法分析 2 0世纪 80— 90年代中国实行非均衡战略的效果 ,发现上海这一区域“增长极”的经济发展对全国经济发展有一定的带动和扩散作用。新的一个世纪即将到来 ,“增长极”在区域经济发展中将依然发挥至关重要的作用 ,而上海作为一个很好的增长极必将带动长江三角洲和长江产业带的发展 ,因此本文在前面分析的基础上 ,对长江三角洲的产业布局提出一些建议。最后本文讨论了转移—份额法分析问题的局限性。

Abstract:For various regional developing problems after World War II，the unbalanced theories has been developed quickly.The governments of most nations have been seeking for a theory to conduct their regional planing and some of them have made success.This paper described the main unbalanced theories and their application in some countries.Based on the “shift-share”analysis of the spatial process of economic extension in the Yangtse Delta during 1980's and 1990's, we found that the development of Shanghai drove the development of whole country. When the new century comes to us,the growing poles will still play important role in the first decade.Shanghai as a growing pole should brings along the development of the industrial axis along Yangtse River.In the basis of the analysis before,we provide some suggestions about industrial plan.Finally,we pointed out the shortage of“shift-share”method.