美元流动性、国际大宗商品价格与上证指数的关联性分析

Relevance Analysis on US Dollar Liquidity,International Bulk Commodity Prices and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

在世界经济增长共生模式下,美元流动性、国际大宗商品价格与上证指数之间具有联动结构。数据分析表明:国际大宗商品价格指数对上证指数具有长期的影响力,美元流动性对上证指数具有间接的影响力。因此,对上证指数的预测应从国内流动性和经济增长周期二维分析框架推广到广义的全球性框架中。

This paper reveals,under the symbiotic model of the world economic growth,the linkage among the US dollar liquidity,international bulk commodity prices and the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index.Statistics shows that the international bulk commodity price index can explain Shanghai composite index in the long run,and the dollar liquidity has significant effect on the Shanghai composite index.Therefore,the forecast of Shanghai composite index should not be restricted to the two-dimensional framework of analyzing domestic liquidity and economic growth cycle,but be extended to the generalized global framework.