国际大宗商品价格、有效汇率与输入型通货膨胀——基于国际贸易视阈下的状态空间模型研究

International Commodity Price,Effective Exchange Rate and Imported Inflation——Based on Research of State Space Model from the Perspective of International Trade

随着经济对外开放程度的加深,中国通货膨胀的输入型特征日益明显。特别是近些年,以粮食、石油为代表的国际大宗商品价格在人民币汇率的辅助下通过国际贸易渠道对中国通货膨胀进行传导。在国际贸易视阈下,在各环节传导机理分析的基础上,利用变参数状态空间模型进行实证检验,结果表明:国际大宗商品价格对中国通货膨胀的形成具有较强的促进作用,有效汇率次之,而贸易收支环节并不存在明显的传导特征。

With the development of economic opening,the character of international import of inflation has been obvious gradually.In recent years,pass-through mechanism of inflation through international trade is influenced by international commodity price represented by agriculture and oil with the help of RMB exchange rate.This paper,with the view of international trade,on the basis of analysis of pass-through mechanism of each unit,tests the conduction of state space model.The empirical testing shows that the inflation in China is formed largely by international commodity price and then the effective exchange rate,the conduction in trade balance is not obvious.