濉溪县夏大豆生育期降水变化特征分析

Analysis of Precipitation during Growth Period of Summer Soybean in Suixi County

以濉溪县1961～2010年6月中旬～9月下旬降水量、雨日为研究对象,利用曲线回归和方差分析外推、小波分析法,研究夏大豆生育期降水的演变规律及突变特征,为旱涝预警、防灾减灾提供依据。结果表明:夏大豆生长期降水量整体呈略有下降的趋势,但未达到显著水平。历年平均降水量和雨日季节变化为近似抛物线。全生育期降水量变化主周期为5 a,雨日变化主周期为14 a。大豆播种期、苗期、花荚期和鼓粒期降水量变化主周期分别为11、8、11和7 a,雨日变化主周期分别为19、12、23和5 a。根据变化主周期,利用前40～46 a资料,预测2001～2011年夏大豆全生育期降水量和鼓粒期雨日,准确率分别为63.6%和54.5%。

The precipitation and rainy days form mid June to late September of Suixi County in 1961-2010 were used to analyze the evolution and mutation characteristics of precipitation during summer soybean growth period by curvilinear regression and analysis of variance extrapolation method and wavelet analysis method,to provide reference for disaster warning and prevention.The results showed that precipitation during summer soybean growth period generally had a slight downward trend,but did not reach the significant level,the average precipitation and rainy season changed like the parabola.The main changing period of the whole growing period precipitation and rainy days were 5 and 14 years,respectively.The main changing cycle of precipitation in sowing,seedling,flowering and seed-filling were 11,8,11 and 7 years and rainy days were 19,12,23 and 5 years,respectively.Based on the main changing cycle and the data of past 40-46 years,we predicted the precipitation of whlole growth period and the rainy days of seed-filling stage in 2001-2011 years,and the accuracy rates were 63.6% and 54.5%,respectively.