甘肃小陇山林业病虫灾害气象评估技术研究

Study of meteorological assessment techniques of forest diseases and pests in Xiaolong mountain

【目的】研究环境气象条件与甘肃小陇山林区林业病虫灾害发生面积的关系。【方法】采用异常度指标分析法,建立森林病害、虫害、病虫害发生面积气象因子评估模型,并用该模型对1992-2007年甘肃小陇山林区年林业病虫灾害发生面积进行综合评估。【结果】成功建立了林业病害、虫害、病虫害发生面积气象评估模型,该模型对林业病害评估的准确率为80%～100%,对林业虫害评估的准确率为75%～100%,对林业病虫灾害综合评估的准确率为67%～100%。【结论】所建立模型对林业病虫灾害评估效果较理想,对林业病虫灾害防控有一定的指导意义。

【Objective】The research was to study environment meteorological conditions and the area of Xiaolong Mountain forest zone pest disasters.【Method】Using abnormal index analysis,the model for forest diseases,insect pest in area and meteorological factors’s abnormal on the level and evaluation was established,and then comprehensive assessment on Xiaolong Mountain forest zone pest disasters area from 1992 to 2007 was made.【Result】The accuracy rate of forest disease assessment is 80%-100%,forestry pest assessment 75%-100%,forest diseases,insect disasters comprehensive assessment of 67%-100%.【Conclusion】The model has better assessment effect and could guide control of forest diseases and pests.