猕猴桃园节肢动物群落演替的突变模型研究及稳定性分析

Studies on catastrophe model and stability for arthropod community succession in kiwifruit orchards

【目的】分析猕猴桃从野生到大面积栽培过程中节肢动物群落的演变过程。【方法】采用时空替代方案,调查了陕西周至和眉县不同栽植年限猕猴桃园的节肢动物群落种类和数量,计算出多样性指数(H′)、丰富度指数(MD)、均匀度指数(J)和害虫与天敌数量比例,建立了猕猴桃园节肢动物群落椭圆突变模型,并对群落稳定性进行分析。【结果】3年生和9年生的猕猴桃园节肢动物群落害虫亚群落处于不稳定区域,发生了突变;14年生和野生的猕猴桃园节肢动物群落相对稳定,处于稳定安全区,没有发生突变;说明随着猕猴桃从野生到栽培年限的增加,群落稳定性增强。3年生园和9年生园在发生突变之前控制变量w的值由w≥0变为w<0,验证了控制变量是稳定性判定的重要指标。【结论】害虫亚群落的稳定性程度是影响虫害暴发的关键因素,亚群落指标对控制变量作用均衡的系统是比较稳定的系统,不宜发生突变造成危害。

【Objective】The study was to analyze the process of arthropod community succession and stability.【Method】The elliptic umbilic catastrophe model is developed based on diversity index,richness index,evenness index and the ratio of pests and natural enemies of arthropod community in kiwifruit orchards,which include 3-year,9-year,14-year and wild kiwifruit orchard.【Result】The results show that pests of arthropod community are instable in 3-and 9-year kiwifruit orchard,and pests of arthropod community are stable in 14-year and wild kiwifruit orchard.It reflects that the longer kiwifruit orchard is planted,the more stable the arthropod community is,which is an important index on judging stability or instability.【Conclusion】From the principal component analysis,we know that the stability level is a key factor in forecasting damage by insects and system,which is influenced by the balanced stable control variable.