中国出口贸易、经济增长与就业关系的实证研究——基于中国1978-2010年数据的实证检验

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Among Export Trade, Economic Growth and Employment in China

鉴于我国就业形势严峻和全社会对就业问题的重视,本文旨在研究出口贸易、经济增长对就业的影响和三者的关系。文章使用1978-2010年的数据实证分析了出口贸易、经济增长与就业之间的动态关系。结论表明:三个变量之间存在长期的稳定关系;经济增长是出口贸易的granger原因,但出口贸易并不是经济增长的granger原因;经济增长不是就业granger原因。为了说明结论的可靠性,对以上的结论进行了实例验证。鉴于此,提出了若干政策建议。

In view of very serious employment situationin our country and the whole society＇ sattention to the employment problem, this paper aims to study the impact of export trade and economic growth on employment, as well as the relationship among export trade, economic growth and employment. Adopt- ing 1978 to 2010 time series data of China, we analyze the dynamic relationship among export trade, economic growth and employment empirically. The conclu- sions show that the three variables have long-term cointegration relationship; Eco- nomic growth is the granger cause of export trade, but export trade is not the granger cause of economic growth; and economic growth is not the granger cause of employment. To illustrate the reliability of the conclusions, we use some examples to test and verify the results. In view of this, a number of poli- cy suggestions are made.