我国对外直接投资与产业结构调整的关联分析

Correlation Analysis of FDI and Industrial Structure Adjustment in China

本文选取2003-2009年我国对外直接投资的7大行业数据为样本,运用灰色关联模型进行实证分析,考察我国对外直接投资对国内产业结构的调整效应。分析结果表明,与国内产业结构优化调整的关联度从高到低依次是信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,建筑业,批发和零售业,采矿业,制造业,交通运输仓储邮政业,租赁和商务服务业。同时,从产业选择角度出发提出政策建议,即在当前经济发展阶段下,国家应鼓励企业选择产业内连锁效应强、产品供求链长的产业以及技术密集型产业部门进行对外直接投资,以带动国内整体产业结构的升级。

This paper selected the sample of FDI data from seven major in- dustries in China from 2003 to 2009, and empirically analyzed the influence of FDI to the home industry structure adjustment on the basis of model of gray rela- tive level. The results show that the correlation degree for the adjustment of in- dustrial structure from high to low in turn is： information transmission, computer services and software industry, architecture industry wholesale and retail industry, mining industry, manufacturing industry, transport, storage, post industry, and ten- ancy and business services industry. Meanwhile, this paper proposed some rela- tive strategic suggestions on how to promote industrial structure adjustment by FDI from the perspective of industry selection. The State shall encourage enter- prises to select those industrial sectors that have strong chain effects and long supply chain, and select technology-intensive industrial sectors, in order to pro- mote the industrial structure upgrading.