改革开放30年中国农业生产力和效率变化评估

The Evaluation of the Regional Difference of Total Factor Productivity in the Past Three Decades

本文计算了改革开放30年来中国的农业生产力变化及其区域差异,分析了生产力增长中各要素的贡献,并评估了在改革期间政府政策对农业生产的影响。将1979—2008年的省级数据应用于随机前沿生产函数模型来计算农业生产力变化指数及其组成部分。在中国的农村改革进程中政策调整频频发生,绝大多数政策推动了农村改革的延续和进一步深化,但也有一些政策缺乏一贯性。系统地评估了在过去的30年里政策改革对农业生产力及其要素区域性差异的影响。

This paper estimates productivity change in agriculture,analyses the decomposition of observable growth,and evaluates the effects of the government's policy on China's agricultural production during the reform period.In this paper,total factor productivity(TFP) is decomposed into three components: technical change(TC),technical efficiency(TE) change,and a scale effect.Aggregated provincial level data for the 1979-2008 period is used in a stochastic production frontier model to calculate indices of TFP change and its three components,with a specific focus on explaining the variation in technical efficiency.During China's rural reform period,policies were frequently adjusted.Most of these policies favor the continuation and deepening of reform,but some of them contradict each other or even lead to a regress in the reform process.It is useful to examine how the rural reforms have affected China's agricultural production over the last three decades,and this examination will aid the future course of reform.