中国苹果主产区生产布局变迁及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factor and Layout of Major Apple Production in China

30多年来中国苹果生产的区域布局发生了明显变化,一方面,在区域之间呈现出由环渤海湾、黄土高原、黄河故道、西南冷凉高地四大主产区逐步调整为环渤海湾和黄土高原两大优势主产区的格局。另一方面,在区域内部呈现出"西移北扩"的特征。为了进一步弄清中国苹果主产区变化规律及其原因,本文运用局部均衡模型分析了1988—2009年影响环渤海湾和黄土高原两大优势主产区苹果生产布局的主要因素。结果显示,自然灾害、非农就业机会、粮食安全保障水平、技术进步、市场消费需求和国家政策等因素对苹果生产布局有显著影响,但是由于区域差异,各因素对两大区域的影响程度有所不同。

After more than 30 years of development,the allocation of apple production in China has changed greatly.On the one hand,apple production areas have gradually adjusted from Bohai Bay,Loess Plateau,Yellow River,and Southwest Cold Highlands to Bohai Bay and Loess Plateau,the two major apple production areas.On the other hand,it represents the feature of transferring westward and expanding northward.These changes influenced by natural disasters,non-agricultural employment opportunities,food safety level,technological progress,market consumption demand and national policy.