中国己内酰胺市场供求分析与预测

Supply and demand analysis and forecast of of China caprolactam market

综述了世界己内酰胺生产能力变化情况,新增生产能力主要集中在亚洲地区,2015年中国己内酰胺生产能力有可能突破5 000 kt/a,世界己内酰胺生产能力将增加至10 000 kt/a;剖析了己内酰胺市场供求情况,2011年中国己内酰胺的进口依存度仍有54%,己内酰胺生产技术取得突破及迅速增长的市场吸引大量新的投资厂商;预测了己内酰胺下游需求,指出中国己内酰胺消费仍局限在传统的纺织品领域,应进一步开发工程塑料、薄膜等领域,未来将呈现企业的生产成本,产品差别化竞争,2012年将是己内酰胺市场竞争的转折点;应以市场需求为导向,进一步挖掘自身企业优势,促进上下游产业链持续发展。

The historical situation of world caprolactam production capacity was reviewed.The increased production capacity mainly concentrated on Asia.The caprolactam production capacity was expected to exceed 5 000 kt/a in China and 10 000 kt/a all over he world in 2015.The supply and demand situation of caprolactam market was analyzed.China still had the dependence degree of caprolactam import of 54% in 2011,achieved the breakthrough of caprolactam production technology,and attracted a large amount of investors due to rapidly growing market.The down-stream demand for caprolactam was analyzed and forecasted.It was pointed out that China caprolactam consumption which was still limited in the traditional textile field should be further devloped into the fields of engineering plastics and membrane;the competition in production cost and product differentiation would rise among enterprises in the future,and the year of 2012 would be the turning point of caprolactam market competition;and based on market orientation,enterprises should deeply explore their self-advantages to promote the sustainable development of up-and down-stream industrial chain.