基于数值模式的风速预报方法研究

WIND SPEED FORECASTING METHOD BASED ON NUMERICAL MODEL

基于东北区域中尺度数值预报业务模式产品,使用CALMET模式降尺度和双线性插值(BLI)方法预报风电机组不同高度上的风速。对比位于辽宁省北部3个风电场的风塔观测资料与两种方法预报的风速结果后发现:使用CALEMT模式降尺度和BLI方法均能较好地预报出风电机组所在位置的风速,预报结果与观测的相关系数大多高于0.65,CALMET模式使用9km的模式输出场预报得到的风速好于使用3km的模式输出场;BLI方法对风速的预报也较好,但在地形复杂的情况下,略差于CALMET模式结果。

Based on the products of operational mesoscale NWP model in Northeast of China, wind speed of wind farm at different heights were predicted using CALMET model and Bilinearity Interpolation method. According to the comparison between forecasted and observed wind data of three wind farms in north area of Liaoning, the results show that both CALMET and BLI methods perform well in wind speed forecasting, and the correlation coefficients between forecasted and observed wind speed are beyond 0.65. The wind speed of forecasted by CALMET with the output of WRF at 9km is better than with the output at 3kin. BLI is also a good choice in forecasting wind speed, however, it is a little worse than CALMET at complex topography.