南京市工业能源碳排放及影响因素分析

Analysis on Industrial Energy Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors in Nanjing

以南京市为例,采用Divisia分析方法,深入分析了1995～2009年南京市能源消耗及其碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:1995年以来南京市碳排放量呈逐年增加趋势;经济发展对碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长;能源消费是碳排放的主要来源,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制碳排放的贡献率都呈倒"U"型;能源效率对南京碳排放的抑制作用正在逐渐减弱。加快工业低碳化转型,发展低碳技术、提高能源效率是降低南京市工业能源碳排放的关键。

Developing a low carbon economy is the city economic social transformation of the new trend.Taking Nanjing as an example,apply the logarithmic mean Divisia analysis method and deep analysis Nanjing energy consumption and the influence factors of carbon emission.The results show that： Since 1995,the carbon emissions of Nanjing is increasing year by year trend.Economic development on stimulate the contribution rate per capita carbon emissions increase exponentially.Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions.However,energy efficiency and energy structure to control the contribution rate per capita carbon emissions form a full ＂U＂ type.Energy efficiency to suppress Nanjing carbon emissions is crumbling.Consequently,as soon as possible formulating a low-carbon economy strategic planning,developing low-carbon technology,improving energy efficiency and adjusting the industrial structure is the important measures to promote the transformation about Nanjing energy consumption pattern.