2011年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定

Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2011

本文对2011年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)业务定位和预报精度进行评定,内容包括TC定位、确定性路径和强度预报以及路径集合预报。结果表明:业务定位总平均误差为24.9 km;国内各综合预报方法24、48和72 h的总体平均距离误差分别为112.6、209.7和333.6 km;国内各业务数值模式24、48和72 h预报的总体平均距离误差分别为121.4、220.1和380.5 km,均比2010年有所减小,但各模式的强度预报能力仍不如客观预报方法。对7个集合预报系统的TC路径预报能力进行评估,发现ECMWF集合预报系统的整体表现最好,其次是NCEP集合预报系统,这两个系统在某些时效的集合平均预报接近或超过综合预报水平。国家气象中心集合预报系统处中游水平。

Operational positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones （TC） over the western North Pacific in 2011 are evaluated. The evaluations are performed on the TC＇s positioning, the deterministic track and intensity forecasts, and the track ensemble prediction. The results show that the TC average operational positioning error is 24.9 km. The average errors of domestic integrated track forecast in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h are 112.6 km, 209.7 km and 333.6 km, respectively, which are 121.4 km, 220.1 km and 380.5 km for numerical weather prediction （NWP） models, and better than those of 2010. However, the results also show that the NWP intensity forecasting capability is still weaker than obiective methods. ECMWF ensemble prediction system （EPS） shows the best performance among the 7 EPS methods, followed by NCEP EPS, occasionally, these two systems have near and even beyond subjective track forecast level. CMA-GEFS EPS was located at the middle level.