基于饮食结构变迁趋势下的饲料粮预测

Feeding Grains Prediction Based on Trend of Diet Structure Changes

我国居民饮食结构的变迁——植物性食物消费逐渐下降与动物性食物消费逐渐增加,引发了畜牧业对饲料粮需求的增加。饲料粮也成为仅次于口粮消费的第二大粮食消费途径,而且未来可能超过口粮成为第一大粮食消费途径。基于我国居民饮食结构变迁的视角,利用时间趋势外推法预测未来我国居民的人均食物消费量,结合料肉比和粮肉比推算我国饲料粮的未来需求量,并提出了相关政策建议。

Along with the development of the diet structure of residents in our country,animal food consumption increased leading to feed grain demand growth.Feeding grain demand became the second important way to grains market.Based on the changes in diet structure of residents in China,food consumption per capita was predicted via time extrapolation.Then with the feed conversion ratio,work out grains consumption in feeding demand.At last,relevant policy suggestions were put forward based on the conclusions.