泊头市近40年气温变化趋势及对农业影响分析

Effects of Air Temperature Variation Trend in Botou City in 40 Years on Agricultural Production

[目的]研究泊头市近40年来气温变化趋势及对农业生产的影响。[方法]利用泊头市1971～2010年的温度气候资料,利用最小二乘法进行线性倾向估计,分析泊头市气温变化趋势和农作物生长季(4～10月)气温变化趋势。[结果]近40年来年平均气温呈递增趋势,增温速率为0.328℃/10a;各季节气温均呈升温趋势,冬季气温增幅最大、夏季增幅最小;农作物生长季平均气温变化与年气温变化基本一致,呈增长趋势,线性增温速率为0.203℃/10a,较年平均气温的增长幅度低;年平均气温、生长季气温和各季节均有阶段性低温期;90年代以后是年、生长季和各季节的温度最高时期。气候变暖对农业生产产生显著影响。[结论]该研究为泊头地区应对气候变暖、合理安排生产,以趋利弊害,使农作物达到可持续稳产高产提供理论依据。

[Objective]To study effects of air temperature variation trend in recent 40 years in Botou City on agricultural production.[Method]Based on climate data in Botou City during 1971-2010,the least-squares method was used to analyze air temperature variation trend during April-October.[Result]The average temperature showed increasing trend with the rate of 0.328 ℃/10a;the biggest temperature increasing occurred in winter,while the smallest in summer.The average temperature in agricultural crops growth season also showed increasing trend with the liner temperature growth rate of 0.203 ℃/10a;after 1990s,temperature increased significantly.Climate warming has significant effect on agricultural production.[Conclusion] The study will provide theoretical basis for rational arrangement of production.