海堤设计风浪和设计潮位组合风险率分析

The Risk Probability Analysis on Design Combination of Wind Wave and Tidal Level in Design of Sea Dike

风浪和潮位是海堤设计的关键因素,为保障海堤工程的安全性并使工程设计更为经济合理,基于Clayton Copula连接函数建立了潮位和风浪联合分布函数,以此构建了风浪和潮位组合设计风险分析模型,提出了考虑风险率模式下的风浪和潮位组合设计方法.以深圳市赤湾海域为例,分析了1971～2002年实测水文资料,获得了风浪和潮位组合风险率.结果显示:深圳赤湾海域大潮与大风同时遭遇的概率小,采用同频率设计偏于安全;而所建模型充分考虑到了风浪和潮位这种遭遇的特性,对风浪和潮位遭遇工况的合理设计具有指导意义,也为沿海城市海堤设计参数的确定提供了一种技术手段.

Wind wave and tidal level are the crucial factors in the design of sea dike project.To balance the engineering cost and engineering safety,an approach was applied to design the combination of wind wave and tidal level with risk consideration.A combined distribution function was built by using Clayton Copula,thereafter,the wind wave and wind level combination risk design model was established.Observed hydrological data on Shenzheng Chiwan area from 1971 to 2002 were analyzed to obtain the combined risk probability of wind wave and tidal level.The results indicate that the probability is low when high wind wave reaching high tidal level,and the model puts the risk probability into consideration,which provides a reasonable method for coastal sea dike design.