共同冲击对广东省出口的效应分析

The Effects of Common Factors on Guangdong’s Exports

本文研究共同冲击(Common Shocks)对于广东省出口的影响,在重力方程中引入共同因子设定,用于反映共同冲击对广东向不同地区出口的异质性影响。实证结果表明,存在两个影响广东省出口的共同冲击,分别是一体化趋势因子和贸易潜力因子,前者反映了全球一体化的影响,后者反映了国际贸易多元化的影响。文中详细分析了它们对广东省出口的影响和特征,并对其形成原因和"冲击作用"做了经济学解释。进一步分析表明,考虑共同冲击的影响可以更好地解释贸易波动,并且提高了重力方程的预测能力。

This paper studies the effects on Guangdong province exports of common shocks by introducing common factors into gravity model, which is used to reflect the heterogeous influences of common shocks on Guangdong＇ s exports to different partners. We find that there exists two common factors in Guangdong＇ s exports, which are integration trend factor and trade potential factor, reflecting respectively the effects of global integration and international trade diversification. We analyze two factors＇ s influences on Guandong＇ s exports and their characteristics, and also their economic implications. Further analysis indicates that common factors proves helpful both in explaining trade variation and in improving the forecast ability of gravity equation.